Covid-19: Half of India may be infected by Feb 2021
Published: 09:19 PM, 20 October 2020 Updated: 11:54 AM, 21 October 2020
A government committee of India tasked with providing projections told news agency Reuters on Monday that half of the country's one hundred and thirty crore population could be infected by coronavirus by February 2021.
At present, India has the second highest number of victims in the world after the United States as the country's current coronavirus tally stands at over 75 lakh cases.
"Our mathematical model estimates that around 30 per cent of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50 per cent by February," said Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.
The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the central government’s serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.
According to Agrawal, the population is so large that serological survey sampling may not be accurate. That is why the committee has published the report based on the mathematical model.
Regarding the committee's approach, Agarwal said they also considered cases of infection that were not reported; So that infected people can be divided into two separate categories.
The committee warned that social distance and the wearing of masks could go beyond their predictions if ignored. In that case, the infection may increase to 26 lakh in one month.