Brexit will make UK worse off, government warns
Published: 10:48 PM, 28 November 2018 Updated: 10:48 PM, 28 November 2018
The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, new government analysis suggests.
Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU.
But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say.
The prime minister said her deal was the best one available for jobs and the economy.
"Our deal is the best deal available for jobs and our economy, that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of Brexit," Mrs May said at Prime Minister's Questions.
The government's Brexit deal faces a potentially difficult vote in the House of Commons on 11 December.
Before that Mrs May is touring the country to promote the deal and was due to be in Scotland on Wednesday afternoon.
What do the forecasts show?
Confusingly the 83-page document does not forecast the impact of the prime minister' current deal.
Instead it looks at the potential impact of the proposals agreed by the Cabinet at Chequers in July, which is the basis of the current proposal.
Under those circumstances the economy would be 3.9% smaller than if the UK had remained part of the European Union.
The estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030s.
The government report also examines three other possible scenarios including a no-deal Brexit, which would be the most damaging.
The economy will continue to grow under all the scenarios, but there is a wide variation in how much.
What is the political reaction?
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis questioned the research, saying previous Treasury forecasts had been proved wrong and were based on "flawed assumptions".
Chancellor Philip Hammond said the planned Brexit deal combined most of the economic benefits of remaining in the EU with the political benefits of leaving the EU.
Asked if the UK would be poorer under Mrs May's deal, he said: "The economy will be slightly smaller in the prime minister's preferred version of the future partnership."
But Mr Hammond argued that staying in the EU was not politically "viable".
What about trade deals?
Veteran Conservative Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash said Mr Hammond was effectively arguing for the UK to stay in the European Union in his "extraordinary" statement.
He said the chancellor had ignored potential economic benefits of leaving the EU, asking: "What about the trade deals which could give us the most enormous opportunities throughout the world, if we are able to strike them?"
Under Mrs May's deal, the UK would be able to negotiate trade deals during the transition period after 29 March's Brexit day, but would not be able to implement them until the end of the planned 21-month transition period, which could itself be extended.
- Visiting Largest Fish Aquarium of Bangladesh
- PM to inaugurate `Gangchil` on Thursday
- Empty classrooms as some schools re-open in Kashmir
- Easy loan for idea innovators
- Peya Bipasha in new film
- Huawei gets 90 more days
- Man commits suicide after being raped in Gazipur
- Aklima`s husband & father-in-law dies
- Srijit a very good friend of mine: Mithila
- Indian foreign minister Jaishankar in Dhaka
- Dolphins goes extinct day by day
- BFF set to start world cup practice on Friday
- 5% VAT on ride-sharing companies
- Easy ways to clean the stomach
- Death toll crossed thousand in India
- BNP to complain to UN losing country`s support
- Sujon: New Star of Dhallywood!
- Eight grader raped by principal
- `Allah’r Dal` targets fired Pilkhana men
- 20 killed after fuel tanker explosion in Uganda
- Coast fishermen waiting for fish
- Chatku Ahmed losing eyesight!
- I want interactions with everyone: PM
- A new milestone for Purnima
- ‘National School Meal Act-2019’ draft approves
- Magical use of Ghee for skin & hair
- ‘Mongla Port Authority Act’ draft approves
- HC seeks SP’s remarks over Minni’s confession
- T-Aman seedbed prepared on 100 acres in Gaibandha
- Man dies of dengue in Mymensingh
- All News »
- Truck driver rescues girl from rape on moving bus
- National Mourning Day Thursday
- 7 killed as auto-rickshaw crashes into bus
- Priyanka anxious over Nick’s diabetes!
- Immortal sayings of Bangabandhu
- Jacqueline stuns in yellow during birthday trip in Sri Lanka
- Momo stares in Hindi film!
- Kona disclosed her marriage 3 months later!
- Fire breaks out at Mirpur slum
- Army Chief off to Indonesia Sunday
- Nayan`s last SMS to Minni
- Hong Kong protesters march peacefully
- Man United faces Wolverhampton tonight
- Visiting Largest Fish Aquarium of Bangladesh
- Removal of animal wastes almost completed: DSCC Mayor
- 4 of a family killed in M’singh bus-car collision
- Two Bangladeshis killed in Saudi road crash
- 63 Bangladeshi Hajj pilgrims died in Saudi Arabia
- Mirpur slum fire doused
- No foreign prog broadcast without permission
- Pak-India war! 8 soldiers killed on LoC
- 2 gang rape accused killed in gunfight
- La Liga: Atletico Madrid faces Getafe tonight
- Flood victims to get 24,000 houses
- App launches to prevent dengue
- Kashmir outposts divided over status change
- BCB seek clarity from Mashrafe Mortaza about ODI future
- Sabbir invites PM to his wedding
- 2 dead, 3 missing after boat sinks in Jamuna
- Lawyer killed in Cumilla road crash