Brexit will make UK worse off, government warns
Published: 10:48 PM, 28 November 2018 Updated: 10:48 PM, 28 November 2018
The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, new government analysis suggests.
Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU.
But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say.
The prime minister said her deal was the best one available for jobs and the economy.
"Our deal is the best deal available for jobs and our economy, that allows us to honour the referendum and realise the opportunities of Brexit," Mrs May said at Prime Minister's Questions.
The government's Brexit deal faces a potentially difficult vote in the House of Commons on 11 December.
Before that Mrs May is touring the country to promote the deal and was due to be in Scotland on Wednesday afternoon.
What do the forecasts show?
Confusingly the 83-page document does not forecast the impact of the prime minister' current deal.
Instead it looks at the potential impact of the proposals agreed by the Cabinet at Chequers in July, which is the basis of the current proposal.
Under those circumstances the economy would be 3.9% smaller than if the UK had remained part of the European Union.
The estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030s.
The government report also examines three other possible scenarios including a no-deal Brexit, which would be the most damaging.
The economy will continue to grow under all the scenarios, but there is a wide variation in how much.
What is the political reaction?
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis questioned the research, saying previous Treasury forecasts had been proved wrong and were based on "flawed assumptions".
Chancellor Philip Hammond said the planned Brexit deal combined most of the economic benefits of remaining in the EU with the political benefits of leaving the EU.
Asked if the UK would be poorer under Mrs May's deal, he said: "The economy will be slightly smaller in the prime minister's preferred version of the future partnership."
But Mr Hammond argued that staying in the EU was not politically "viable".
What about trade deals?
Veteran Conservative Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash said Mr Hammond was effectively arguing for the UK to stay in the European Union in his "extraordinary" statement.
He said the chancellor had ignored potential economic benefits of leaving the EU, asking: "What about the trade deals which could give us the most enormous opportunities throughout the world, if we are able to strike them?"
Under Mrs May's deal, the UK would be able to negotiate trade deals during the transition period after 29 March's Brexit day, but would not be able to implement them until the end of the planned 21-month transition period, which could itself be extended.
- Woman commits suicide after poisoning 2 children
- Motorcyclist killed in Manikganj road crash
- Papua New Guinea PM Peter O`Neill resigns
- Two killed as covered van hits pickup
- England, Australia to play WC Warm Up today
- Boro paddy procurement drive begins in Narail
- Shakib on the brink of another milestone
- Mozammel to join Modi’s oath ceremony
- Iraq sentences 3 Frenchmen to death
- PM to leave home for 12-day tour Tuesday
- Miraz vows to cover up Tigers’ lack of leg-spinner
- Don`t want to see BRTC bankrupt: Quader
- Mahathir expected to visit Bangladesh at ‘year-end’
- Bangladesh-Japan to sign $2.5 bl ODA
- Habitual coffee drinkers really do wake up and smell coffee
- Study predicts shift to smaller animals over next century
- Exotic matter uncovered in the sun`s atmosphere
- PBI proves ex-Sonagazi OC `fault` in DSA
- Modi to take oath on Thursday
- IGP calls for increasing security ahead of Eid
- Bangladesh`s warm-up abandoned due to rain
- JS body urge to complete “Swadhinata Stambha” soon
- Eid Jamaat at 8:30 am
- 6 hours’ road reduced to 1.5 hour
- Hasan urges BNP not to do ‘ill politics’ over Khaleda’s health
- EC, Local Govt Division get new secretaries
- Cannes 2019: All the winners and losers of this year`s festival
- 72nd Cannes film festival winners at a glance
- Magnitude 8 earthquake strikes Peru
- Historical Conquest of Mecca
- All News »
- Contributions of General Aziz Ahmed as ex Director General of BGB (Part I)
- Boro paddy procurement drive begins in Narail
- Ronaldo coming to Dhaka in Mujib Year
- JS body discusses security of women, children
- Adventurous operation BEKPA-2 (Episode-1) under Captain Touquir
- Taylor, Williamson lead NZ to beat India
- Aruk Munshi: living reflect of Bangabandhu
- Ukraine`s new president Zelensky calls snap elections
- `Final should not decide my future`
- HC seeks reports of lab test on 93 more food items
- 2 hijackers killed in Hazaribagh gunfight
- The Army Chief of Bangladesh urges to increase interoperability of land forces
- AIUB pupil’s body recovered from GF`s house
- PM inaugurates Panchagarh Express
- Polls to suspended 5 UZs on June 18
- Rumin Farhana gets BNP’s reserve seat nomination
- OC withdrawn over schoolgirl Barsha’s suicide after rape
- 6 women among 11 killed in ‘massacre’ at bar
- 29 fake question leakers held in Satkhira
- 15 Bangladeshi survivors return home
- Panchagarh Express starts journey today
- On Mars, sands shift to a different drum
- Contributions of General Aziz Ahmed as ex Director General of BGB (Part II)
- Highest power generation recorded
- When Jail-guard are ‘drug dealers’!
- Archer named in England World Cup squad
- Poet Helal Hafiz hospitalized
- Mango bean to control diabetes
- Quader for salary, bonus before 25th Ramadan
- 4 of a family killed in gas cylinder blast